Search results for "First-hitting-time model"
showing 10 items of 21 documents
On reliability of systems with moving material subjected to fracture and instability
2015
Abstract The reliability of systems with moving cracked elastic and isotropic material is considered. The material is modeled as a moving plate which continually has a crack on the edge. The plate is subjected to homogeneous tension acting in the traveling direction and the tension varies temporally around a constant value, the set tension. The tension and the length of the crack are modeled by an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and an exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, respectively. Failure is regarded as the state at which the plate becomes unstable or fractures (or both) and a lower bound for the reliability of the system is derived. Considering reliability of the system leads to first p…
Role of conditional probability in multiscale stationary markovian processes.
2010
The aim of the paper is to understand how the inclusion of more and more time-scales into a stochastic stationary Markovian process affects its conditional probability. To this end, we consider two Gaussian processes: (i) a short-range correlated process with an infinite set of time-scales bounded from below, and (ii) a power-law correlated process with an infinite and unbounded set of time-scales. For these processes we investigate the equal position conditional probability P(x,t|x,0) and the mean First Passage Time T(L). The function P(x,t|x,0) can be considered as a proxy of the persistence, i.e. the fact that when a process reaches a position x then it spends some time around that posit…
Reliability analysis of processes with moving cracked material
2015
Abstract The reliability of processes with moving elastic and isotropic material containing initial cracks is considered in terms of fracture. The material is modelled as a moving plate which is simply supported from two of its sides and subjected to homogeneous tension acting in the travelling direction. For tension, two models are studied: (i) tension is constant with respect to time, and (ii) tension varies temporally according to an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Cracks of random length are assumed to occur in the material according to a stochastic counting process. For a general counting process, a representation of the nonfracture probability of the system is obtained that exploits condi…
Resonant activation in piecewise linear asymmetric potentials
2011
7 páginas, 8 figuras.-- PACS number(s): 05.40.−a, 05.45.−a, 02.50.Ey
First passage time distribution of stationary Markovian processes
2010
The aim of this paper is to investigate how the correlation properties of a stationary Markovian stochastic processes affect the First Passage Time distribution. First Passage Time issues are a classical topic in stochastic processes research. They also have relevant applications, for example, in many fields of finance such as the assessment of the default risk for firms' assets. By using some explicit examples, in this paper we will show that the tail of the First Passage Time distribution crucially depends on the correlation properties of the process and it is independent from its stationary distribution. When the process includes an infinite set of time-scales bounded from above, the FPT…
M/M/1 queue in two alternating environments and its heavy traffic approximation
2018
We investigate an M/M/1 queue operating in two switching environments, where the switch is governed by a two-state time-homogeneous Markov chain. This model allows to describe a system that is subject to regular operating phases alternating with anomalous working phases or random repairing periods. We first obtain the steady-state distribution of the process in terms of a generalized mixture of two geometric distributions. In the special case when only one kind of switch is allowed, we analyze the transient distribution, and investigate the busy period problem. The analysis is also performed by means of a suitable heavy-traffic approximation which leads to a continuous random process. Its d…
Diffusive behavior and the modeling of characteristic times in limit order executions
2007
We present an empirical study of the first passage time (FPT) of order book prices needed to observe a prescribed price change Delta, the time to fill (TTF) for executed limit orders and the time to cancel (TTC) for canceled ones in a double auction market. We find that the distribution of all three quantities decays asymptotically as a power law, but that of FPT has significantly fatter tails than that of TTF. Thus a simple first passage time model cannot account for the observed TTF of limit orders. We propose that the origin of this difference is the presence of cancellations. We outline a simple model, which assumes that prices are characterized by the empirically observed distribution …
Diffusion in Flashing Periodic Potentials
2005
The one-dimensional overdamped Brownian motion in a symmetric periodic potential modulated by external time-reversible noise is analyzed. The calculation of the effective diffusion coefficient is reduced to the mean first passage time problem. We derive general equations to calculate the effective diffusion coefficient of Brownian particles moving in arbitrary supersymmetric potential modulated: (i) by external white Gaussian noise and (ii) by Markovian dichotomous noise. For both cases the exact expressions for the effective diffusion coefficient are derived. We obtain acceleration of diffusion in comparison with the free diffusion case for fast fluctuating potentials with arbitrary profil…
Noise-induced enhancement of stability in a metastable system with damping
2010
5 páginas, 5 figuras.-- PACS number(s): 05.40.-a, 02.50.-r
Enhancement of stability in randomly switching potential with metastable state
2004
The overdamped motion of a Brownian particle in randomly switching piece-wise metastable linear potential shows noise enhanced stability (NES): the noise stabilizes the metastable system and the system remains in this state for a longer time than in the absence of white noise. The mean first passage time (MFPT) has a maximum at a finite value of white noise intensity. The analytical expression of MFPT in terms of the white noise intensity, the parameters of the potential barrier, and of the dichotomous noise is derived. The conditions for the NES phenomenon and the parameter region where the effect can be observed are obtained. The mean first passage time behaviours as a function of the mea…